For weeks, more than a hundred climbers at K2’s Base Camp have been anxiously debating whether to stay or head home. Many began to lose hope, fearing the season might end without any successful summits. However, those who have remained patient are now seeing a glimmer of hope, with a potential summit window opening this weekend.
Benjamin Vedrines, undeterred by fierce winds and freezing temperatures, recently completed his acclimatization and has just returned from his third solo visit to Camp 3. Meanwhile, his photographer, Seb Montaz, has been waiting at Camp 2. Despite over a month of waiting, Vedrines has managed to keep his spirits high.
He realizes that his initial plan to summit K2 in a single push might not be feasible due to his limited preparation. Nevertheless, he’s prepared to adjust his strategy and attempt the climb over two days if needed.
Hiraide and Kenro Nakajima, who have been waiting patiently for weeks, are finally taking action this morning.
“It was raining at 4:30 am, but we’re heading to Advanced Base Camp anyway, holding onto hope for one last chance,” they texted their team back home. The Japanese alpinists are set to attempt a new alpine-style route on K2’s West Face.
Commercial climbers are also clinging to their summit dreams. Chhang Dawa Sherpa of Seven Summit Treks reported yesterday that a combined team of sherpas and Western climbers has successfully fixed the ropes up to Camp 3 at 7,350 meters.
“All the essential equipment for our team has been delivered,” Chhang Dawa Sherpa wrote. “With improving weather forecasted in the next four to five days, we are preparing to begin our summit push.”
The lingering question remains: Will the weather truly cooperate?
Weather Outlook
Climbers across the Karakoram have been stating their inconvenience this season as weather forecasts have consistently fallen short. Suddenly storms have disrupted summit attempts on Gasherbrum II and Broad Peak and have hampered progress on other peaks in the region.
We spoke with Marc de Keyser, an American meteorologist from Weather4Expeditions, who is supporting teams on K2, Broad Peak, and K7. According to de Keyser, despite some inaccurate forecasts, his own predictions have generally been reliable. However, he concedes that 2024 has posed significant challenges.
“The subtropical jet stream has been shifting just north of Pakistan, causing high winds above 7,500 meters for nearly two weeks straight,” de Keyser explained.
He advises climbers to stay patient as they await the high-pressure system over the Arabian Sea and central India to expand northward. This shift is expected to push the jet stream—and the associated poor weather—into China and Kazakhstan.
De Keyser anticipates that within a few days, specifically around July 26, winds at higher elevations should significantly decrease, and the air mass will become drier and more stable. This will likely open a favorable weather window for K2 and nearby peaks, making conditions suitable for summiting from July 26 to around July 28-29.
In addition, a summit push has commenced on Broad Peak. Karakorum Expeditions has announced that eight Pakistani rope fixers will depart from Base Camp today to establish the route to the summit.
